WP2 - Representative Route Network and Fleet

This work package aims at deriving characteristic aircraft design requirements, primarily payload and range. These requirements are determined based on an analysis of the worldwide aircraft fleet and route structure for future Entries into Service (EIS). This comprises the following sub-objectives to be achieved by this WP:

  • Adaptation and preparation of air traffic forecast model.
  • Identification of relevant TLARs and aircraft design constraints.
  • Prediction of air traffic for different future years (potential EISs).
  • Cluster analysis of resulting air traffic forecasts with respect to aircraft size and range as well as selection of aircraft market segment(s) to be addressed.
  • Definition of relevant aircraft design parameters and constraints with which the whole range of options for the fleet can be represented.

The work to be carried out in WP2 is subdivided into four tasks contributing to the sub-objectives:

An existing model chain for the prediction of future aircraft movements will be extended and updated. The applied air traffic forecast model consists of three network layers: 

  • the passenger origin-destination demand network, 

  • the routes network and,

  • the aircraft movements network. 

The included passenger air traffic demand model (layer 1) is updated and calibrated with respect to the latest passenger demand figures. Additionally, a frequency capacity-model calculating flight frequencies and aircraft size is adapted and a fleet renewal model is updated using up-to-date order book data (layer 3).


Within this task, TLARs which are considered to be relevant in the course of this project, are identified (e.g. payload and range). Moreover, additional aircraft design constraints which limit the aircraft design envelope (e.g. airport gate constraints, take-off field length) are listed.

The updated air traffic forecast model will be applied in order to predict today’s and future global air traffic flows. Therefore, the number of passengers transported between city-pairs as well as the specific itineraries which are chosen are computed. The resulting forecast is compared with relevant market forecasts from other institutions. 

The resulting quantities constitute the basis for a statistical overview of the required transport capacities on any flight segment. In conjunction with the fleet renewal model and the frequency capacity model, the analysis of the market’s composition as well as the derivation of the conceptual aircraft’s design TLARs and design constraints for selected market segments and corresponding route networks are conducted.